Lovely Rita, no Meter maid.

Tommy · Post by **Tommy** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:30 am

Tommy wrote:
DaleWisely wrote:Tommy. Very best wishes. Let's see you back here soon.

Dale

Thank you Dale and all in the pub.[/quote

We should be evacuating from Santa Fe around noon here. Heading toward Franklin. A small town south east of Waco.

Flyingcursor · Post by **Flyingcursor** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:02 am

Looks like the projected path will take the eye across Matagorda Bay.
That would mean areas north would catch most of the surge.
Interesting is that the long string of barrier islands stop just north of East Matagora Bay until West Bay thus allowing the surge to come straight to the mainland.

Galveston and Houston will get a bit wet.

I thought Houston flooded everytime somebody shed a tear. Has anything ever been done about that?

I had a chance to move to Corpus Christi once. Last year I was asked to do an interview for a job in New Orleans. My answer has always been, No thanks. This is reason #1. Reason #2 is because it's too dang hot down there. I'll take the blizzards and occasional tornadoes any time.

Tommy · Post by **Tommy** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:13 am

beowulf573 wrote:FYI, here's a map of suggested areas in Houston to evacuate for various categories of hurricanes.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/hgx/tropical/wo ... ionMap.pdf

That is what it looks like. The mayor of Houston has just called for voluntary evacuation of parts of Houston that are prone to flood.
It is just about noon here and we are leaving now.

Cynth · Post by **Cynth** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 7:29 pm

It doesn't look good. Maybe this weakening they refer to will help a little bit.

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005
AND YET ANOTHER CATEGORY FIVE HURRICANE THIS SEASON. DATA FROM BOTH
NOAA AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT
PRESSURE DROP TODAY AND WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 145 KNOTS. THIS IS
BASED ON A 700 MB WIND OF 161 KNOTS RECENTLY MEASURED BY AN AIR
FORCE PLANE AND A RECALIBRATED SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 146 KNOTS.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE UNANIMOUSLY 140 KNOTS FROM ALL
AGENCIES. BECAUSE RITA WILL BE CROSSING AN AREA OF HIGH HEAT
CONTENT DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE
HURRICANE WILL MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH. THEREAFTER...THE OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT IS NOT AS HIGH AND THE INTENSITY CHANGES WILL BE CONTROLLED
MAINLY BY EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES AND DECREASING HEAT CONTENT.
SOME WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED BUT RITA IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
AS A MAJOR HURRICANE...AT LEAST CATEGORY THREE.

THERE HAS BEEN NO CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN AND RITA IS MOVING
WESTWARD OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KNOTS. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT
HAS BEEN FORCING RITA WESTWARD IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND SHIFT
EASTWARD. THIS WILL ALLOW THE HURRICANE TO TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE
CORE OF RITA IS BASICALLY MOVING TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST AND THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE HAS BEGUN TO EXPAND
AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ALREADY EXTEND ABOUT 150 N MI IN THE
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. BECAUSE ADDITIONAL EXPANSION OF THE WIND
FIELD IS ANTICIPATED...A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHWEST GULF COAST.

FORECASTER AVILA

Wanderer · Post by **Wanderer** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:12 pm

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HGXHLSHGX

Provided by - NWS Southern Region HQ - Print

000
WTUS84 KHGX 212235
HLSHGX
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ200-213-214-226-227-235>238-220430-

HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
534 PM CDT WED SEP 21 2005

...RITA HAS INTENSIFIED TO A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH
WINDS NEAR 165 MPH...

...HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN RAISED FOR THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

...THIS STATEMENT APPLIES TO THE RESIDENTS OF...GALVESTON...
JACKSON...MATAGORDA...FORT BEND...WHARTON...HARRIS...BRAZORIA...
LIBERTY...CHAMBERS...FORT BEND...WHARTON...COLORADO...AUSTIN...
WALLER...WASHINGTON...GRIMES...MONTGOMERY...WALKER...MADISON...
BRAZOS...AND BURLESON COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

INLAND HURRICANE WATCH FOR AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
HIGHWAY 59 CORRIDOR TO THE WEST OF INTERSTATE 45.

...CURRENT STORM INFORMATION...

.LOCATION...
AT 4 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RITA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST...OR ABOUT 640 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF FREEPORT TEXAS.

.MOVEMENT...
HURRICANE RITA WAS MOVING WEST AT 13 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

.INTENSITY...
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 165 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 5 HURRICANE WITH FLUCTUATIONS IN
STRENGTH EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

.EVACUATION INFORMATION...
FOR JACKSON COUNTY...
MANDATORY EVACUATION HAS BEEN DECLARED FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY.

FOR MATAGORDA COUNTY...
MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR EVERYONE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM HIGHWAY 35 AT
THE BRAZORIA COUNTY LINE TO MARKHAM THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 2431
TO MIDFIELD AND THEN SOUTH ON HIGHWAY 111 TO THE COUNTY LINE WILL BE
IN EFFECT AT 6 PM. THIS CURRENTLY EXCLUDES BAY CITY AND VAN VLECK.

ALTHOUGH TRAFFIC HAS BEEN HEAVY WITH ALL OF THE VOLUNTARY
EVACUATIONS AS THE TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PLAN IS IMPLEMENTED AT 6 PM...
TRAFFIC MOVEMENT SHOULD ACCELERATE...SO DO NOT LET THE TRAFFIC
DELAYS HALT YOUR EFFORTS TO EVACUATE.

AT 6 PM...FOR HARRIS COUNTY...MANDATORY EVACUATIONS WILL BE IN
EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONES B AND C WILL HAVE MANDATORY EVACUATIONS
BEGINNING AT 6 AM THURSDAY.

AT 6 PM FOR GALVESTON AND BRAZORIA COUNTIES...MANDATORY EVACUATIONS
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ZONE A. ZONE B WILL HAVE A MANDATORY
EVACUATION IN EFFECT AT 2 AM THURSDAY. ZONE C WILL HAVE A MANDATORY
EVACUATION IN EFFECT AT 6 AM THURSDAY. ON GALVESTON ISLAND...BUSES
WILL BE AVAILABLE AT THE ISLAND COMMUNITY CENTER ON BROADWAY FOR
PERSONS WITH NO OTHER MEANS OF TRANSPORTATION. PEARLAND OFFICE OF
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICE HAS ISSUED A MANDATORY EVACUATION FOR
THOSE IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS...THOSE IN MOBILE HOMES OR OTHER NON-
STURDY STRUCTURES AND FOR THOSE WITH SPECIAL TRANSPORTATION NEEDS AS
SOON AS POSSIBLE.

LIBERTY COUNTY...
LIBERTY COUNTY OFFICE OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS ASKED FOR A
VOLUNTARY EVACUATION FOR THE ENTIRE COUNTY. EVACUEES SHOULD TRAVEL
NORTH ON HIGHWAY 321 AND HIGHWAY 146. SPECIAL NEEDS INDIVIDUALS IN
NEED OF TRANSPORTATION SHOULD CONTACT THE SHERIFFS OFFICE.

FOR FORT BEND...
VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS IN EFFECT.

.SCHOOL...GOVERNMENT...AND HOSPITAL FACILITY CLOSINGS...
MANY INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS IN GALVESTON...BRAZORIA...
MATAGORDA...JACKSON...CHAMBERS AND HARRIS COUNTIES WILL BE CLOSED.

LAMAR...NEEDVILLE...AND FORT BEND INDEPENDENT SCHOOL DISTRICTS ARE
CLOSED.

IN ADDITION...ALL SCHOOLS IN THE SAN JACINTO COLLEGE DISTRICT AND
BRAZOSPORT COLLEGE WILL BE CLOSED. GALVESTON COUNTY GOVERNMENT
FACILITIES WILL ALSO BE CLOSED TODAY. THE JAMAICA BEACH OFFICE OF
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT HAS BE CLOSED.

UNIVERSITY OF TEXAS MEDICAL BRANCH (UTMB) IN GALVESTON WILL BE
CLOSED. NO MEDICAL CARE WILL BE AVAILABLE AT UTMB HOSPITAL FROM THIS
POINT FORWARD.

.STORM SURGE AND TIDES...
TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST. TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BEGIN RISING ON
THURSDAY AS SWELLS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE RITA BEGIN PROPAGATING
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. THIS POTENTIAL WATER LEVEL RISE COUPLED
WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING AND PERSISTING
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY
RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ACROSS THE LOWEST AREAS ALONG THE
COAST AND ADJACENT TO THE BAYS. MORE SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR AT THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHICH WILL BEGIN
FRIDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING.

THE FOLLOWING ARE THE HIGH TIDE TIMES FOR THURSDAY EVENING AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...AS WELL AS THE PREDICTED WATER LEVELS.

LOCATION HIGH TIDE TIME EXPECTED WATER LEVEL
RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER

PLEASURE PIER 937 PM CDT THU 4.7 FEET

PORT BOLIVAR 1123 PM CDT THU 3.9 FEET

GALVESTON CHANNEL 1109 PM CDT THU 4.4 FEET

SAN LUIS PASS 1100 PM CDT THU 3.7 FEET

JAMAICA BEACH 147 AM CDT FRI 3.9 FEET

MORGANS POINT 930 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET

EAGLE POINT 303 AM CDT FRI 3.4 FEET

FREEPORT 949 PM CDT FRI 4.4 FEET

PORT OCONNOR 451 AM CDT FRI 3.6 FEET

CLEAR LAKE 514 AM CDT FRI 3.5 FEET

.WIND IMPACTS...
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST FRIDAY MORNING...WINDS SHOULD BE INCREASING TO NEAR 50
MPH BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
SHOULD ARRIVE LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EARLY FRIDAY EVENING. BASED
ON THE CURRENT FORECAST THE EYE SHOULD BE NEARING THE COAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SATURDAY MORNING ALONG THE MATAGORDA AND
BRAZORIA SHORES. DEVIATIONS IN THE TRACK OF THE STORM COULD LEAD TO
THESE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS BE FELT ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COAST.

INLAND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE EVENING
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE HURRICANE FORCE WINDS SHOULD SPREAD NORTH TO NEAR
BURLESON COUNTY BY 9 AM SATURDAY.

.RAINFALL...
NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY.

FOR MORE TROPICAL WEATHER INFORMATION...SEE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER WEB PAGE AT HTTP://WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV OR THE WEB PAGE OF THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/HGX.

THE NEXT HURRICANE RITA STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM CDT.

$$

Looks pretty big...Good news, got in touch with my mom finally. She and my niece are headed out of town. My brother has to stay in town to keep his job..he works for the city. Heh

beowulf573 · Post by **beowulf573** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 8:17 pm

I just spoke to my brother, he's sitting in stop and go traffic on 146 at 225. Lovely.

Folks are saying to leave early Thursday if you need to and not wait until Friday.

Cynth · Post by **Cynth** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:33 pm

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 21 2005

RITA HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. A
DROPSONDE IN THE EYE OF RITA AROUND 21/2309Z RECORDED A PRESSURE OF
899 MB WITH A SURFACE WIND OF 32 KT. ANYTHING BELOW 10 KT IS
USUALLY CONSIDERED A VALID PRESSURE. HOWEVER...THE GENERAL THUMB
RULE IS TO DECREASE THE PRESSURE 1 MB FOR EVERY 10 KT ABOVE THAT
WIND SPEED. IN THIS CASE... RITA'S CENTRAL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE 897 MB...MAKING IT THE THIRD MOST INTENSE HURRICANE IN TERMS OF
PRESSURE FOR THE ATLANTIC BASIN. THE LAST RECON PASS ONLY INDICATED
2 REPORTS OF 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 157 KT IN THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT. HOWEVER... ODT VALUES OVER THE PAST 2 HOURS HAVE AVERAGED
BETWEEN T7.3/149 KT AND T7.4/152 KT... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN INCREASED TO 150 KT. THE PRESSURE-WIND RELATIONSHIP FOR AN 897
MB PRESSURE IS 160 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/08. RITA HAS ACTUALLY MADE A
LARGE WOBBLE AND SLOWED TO A 285/06 KT MOTION THE PAST 6 HOURS.
HOWEVER...SUCH MOTION CHANGES...WHICH ARE NOT UNUSUAL FOR
EXPLOSIVELY DEEPENING TROPICAL CYCLONES AS THE INNER CORE WIND
FIELD AND CONVECTIVE PATTERN REORGANIZES...ARE CONSIDERED TEMPORARY
AND RITA IS EXPECTED TO SHORTLY RESUME A MORE WESTWARD MOTION. THE
18Z NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE MORE CONVERGENT THAN PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS... WITH THE GFS AND GFDL MODELS DOING THEIR USUAL
AFTERNOON EASTWARD SHIFT. THOSE MODELS NOW BRING RITA ACROSS THE
HOUSTON-GALVESTON AREA IN ABOUT 72 HOURS. HOWEVER...THE OTHER
MODELS SEEM TO HAVE STABILIZED THEIR FORECAST TRACKS FARTHER WEST
WITH THE CONSENSUS HAVING SHIFTED A LITTLE MORE TO THE RIGHT. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK WAS ALSO SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT...BUT NOT AS
FAR AS THE GFS/GFDL MODELS...SINCE IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE GLOBAL
MODELS HAVE A REASONABLE HANDLE ON WEAKENING THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE
ACROSS TEXAS AND THE GULF COAST BASED 22/00Z UPPER-AIR DATA
INDICATING 40 METER HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE PAST
24 HOURS.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC. THE UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW PATTERN IS PERFECT WITH A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL
CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW NORTHEAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... AN
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL CONVERGING INTO AN UPPER-LOW OVER THE
BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND A THIRD WEAK OUTFLOW CHANNEL DEVELOPING TO
THE NORTHWEST. THIS EXTREMELY FAVORABLE PATTERN...COMBINED WITH
30-31C SSTS...HAS ALLOWED RITA'S EXPLOSIVE DEEPENING TO OCCUR. THE
EYE WILL BE PASSING OVER THE WARM GULF LOOP CURRENT DURING THE NEXT
12 HOURS...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE... IF AN
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DOES NOT INHIBIT THE INTENSIFICATION
PROCESS. BY 36-48 HOURS...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE CURRENT THREE OUTFLOW CHANNEL PATTERN WILL BE REPLACED BY
MAINLY A LARGE POLEWARD OUTFLOW PATTERN. THIS SHOULD INDUCE SOME
STEADY WEAKENING...BUT THAT TYPE OF OUTFLOW PATTERN...COUPLED WITH
EXPECTED LOW VERTICAL SHEAR CONDITIONS...IS STILL SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT A CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE UNTIL LANDFALL OCCURS. OF COURSE...
INTERNAL DYNAMICS ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN WHAT THE INTENSITY OF A
HURRICANE WILL BE... AND WE HAVE NO SKILL IN FORECASTING EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLES BEYOND ABOUT 6-12 HOURS...AT BEST. THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE TREND OF THE SHIPS MODEL...ONLY SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AFTER 24 HOURS DUE TO LOWER VERTICAL SHEAR INDICATED BY THE
NOGAPS...CANADIAN...UKMET...AND ECMWF MODELS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Lambchop · Post by **Lambchop** » Wed Sep 21, 2005 9:38 pm

Gack!

Joseph E. Smith · Post by **Joseph E. Smith** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 4:14 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Cynth · Post by **Cynth** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 10:19 am

It looks like there has been a change in the predicted path, headed more north than last night.

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

RITA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. HURRICANES TYPICALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN SUCH HIGH INTENSITY
FOR A LONG TIME. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 145 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...AN OVERALL GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS BASED ON
LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING
SHEAR. NEVERTHERELESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.

RITA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING RITA
TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK. THE EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS...RESULTING IN
TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING.

FORECASTER AVILA

beowulf573 · Post by **beowulf573** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:09 am

This is good news for Houston, relatively speaking.

My parents decided not to leave their home which pisses me off to no end, they're only five blocks or so outside the mandatory evacuation zone. My brother and his family turned around after sitting for 15 hours on the freeway and are headed to my parents house now.

Thankfully, the season premire of CSI is tonight and not tomorrow!

Jack · Post by **Jack** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 11:12 am

Sitting in the doctor's office lobby this morning, CNN was playing. For at least 30 minutes they talked about nothing other than Rita.

BrassBlower · Post by **BrassBlower** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:29 pm

Cynth wrote:It looks like there has been a change in the predicted path, headed more north than last night.

HURRICANE RITA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU SEP 22 2005

RITA APPEARS TO HAVE REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS. HURRICANES TYPICALLY DO NOT MAINTAIN SUCH HIGH INTENSITY
FOR A LONG TIME. INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 145 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH
SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE LIKELY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO...DUE TO EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES...AN OVERALL GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND SHOULD TAKE PLACE. THIS WEAKENING TREND IS BASED ON
LOWER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK AND INCREASING
SHEAR. NEVERTHERELESS...RITA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A
DANGEROUS HURRICANE OF AT LEAST A CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY.

RITA HAS BEEN MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 8
KNOTS. A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
NORTHERN TEXAS/OKLAHOMA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD ALLOWING RITA
TO TAKE A MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND NORTHERLY TRACK. THE EASTWARD
SHIFT OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST BY ALL GLOBAL MODELS...RESULTING IN
TRACK GUIDANCE CONSISTENTLY TURNING THE HURRICANE TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH TOWARD THE UPPER-TEXAS OR THE WESTERN LOUISIANA
COASTS. AFTER LANDFALL...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
AND THE CYCLONE COULD MEANDER FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE VICINITY
OF NORTHEASTERN TEXAS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS.

BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK AND WIND RADII...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN ISSUED AT THIS TIME FROM PORT O'CONNOR TEXAS TO MORGAN CITY
LOUISIANA. TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT ON EITHER SIDE OF
THE HURRICANE WARNING.

FORECASTER AVILA

Hmm - looks like the Brass Roof Inn and the entire Republic of West Ozarkia will be in for a good soaking before it's all said and done!

Cynth · Post by **Cynth** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 2:40 pm

Oh dear! I hope you are ready. Do you have a canoe? I wouldn't know whether to head for the basement or the attic myself. Be careful now!

missy · Post by **missy** » Thu Sep 22, 2005 3:40 pm

Cynth - most homes on the Gulf don't have basements - the water table is too close to the surface. That's why they don't bury the dead in Nawlins - they put them in crypts instead.