The Current Flute Market

[Casey Burns]

Hi Everyone,

It seems lately that people have been mostly posting flutes for sale here - everyone is trying to unload instruments. Gone mostly are the interesting discussions. Also I have noticed that my own flute sales for Folk Flutes have been lower than the norm starting in March. I discussed this with another well known flute maker over the weekend and he's noticed the same. I've noticed for years that such fluctuations in flute sales rather accurately predict what will happen or what is happening to the economy.

Yesterday I stumbled upon an article showing retail sales and by viewing and tweaking the charts one can see that we are in a downturn since January. In a longer perspective, we are in one of the 7 worst downturns since 1992. Fortunately it is not as bad as 2007-2008. Look at 2015 in the first chart:
See http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united- ... les-annual

For me I have a comfortable and very manageable backlog of orders and the downturn is allowing me to get these out on relatively quick timeframes of a few months or less. It is also allowing me some time for research and development as well as some badly needed infrastructure improvements. I am also indulging in some bagpipe making, currently a Biniou in G and F for my friend Kevin Carr.

So the conclusion I have reached for any other flute makers here who are also seeing a downturn is that its the economy - not anything specific that you or the flute making might be doing. As for the reasons why - I suspect gas going back up - as well as drought-driven food inflation - might have something to do with it. There is also a general unease about the direction of the US with an election coming up. In Great Britain there is now great uncertainty brewing about Britain staying in the EU or not which will provide a hostile investment climate. El Nino is brewing (this will actually bring rains to California so in that way its a good thing). These are the greater forces that us flute makers and players have to navigate.

In the meantime why don't we keep the flute forum mostly for discussing these instruments - and post for sale notices in the Used Instrument Exchange? People will see your post there. And lets revive the discussions again!

Casey

[jemtheflute]

Interesting post, Casey, and I agree with the sentiments. That said, I'm still doing lots of fluty chatting online - just most of it has moved to specialist Groups on Facebook. That works very well in many respects, though the difficulties of finding/accessing old topics/posts in that format is a major down-side compared to this forum.

[accordionstu]

I agree that the downturn is affecting us all. I manage a theatre and have noticed that people seem to have been holding back on booking and paying for shows until after the General elections. Now that the result is in, it means that the UK will face more austerity cuts with more public sector services facing an uncertain future.Therefore very few people are spending money on luxury items. I have decided not to go away on holiday this year either and my wish for an 8 key flute will have to wait until I win the lottery.

[sligofluter]

Great point Casey.

I´m from Spain and nobody can talk more properly about economic recession than us and our companions mediterranean countries.

Yes, it is still very hard, and austericide is killing us, for example here in Spain more than 7% of our taxes (severely increased in 3 years) are directed to pay debt, we expend 9% in education and 14% in one of the best health system in europe (until 3 years ago at least).

Here the people have empty pockets and I know some friends selling their instruments to pay university feeds for example (45.000 students abandoned university in 2 years because feed increasing). The spaniards are paying with their blood 100€ billions our goverment asked to europe to save private banks they looted previously. We have no money but now we are owners of a dozen of defaulted banks that are kicking us from our houses for not paying mortages. (https://youtu.be/T2__h_bO4Ns?t=6m58s)

I just read that UK is considering leaving EU, well, flee from here and do not look back.

By other hand I can see that flute prices of some famous makers are increased a few in the last 2-3 years.

I think we are witnessing the deflation of a small bubble in the market for flutes, prices need to readjust to a new situation.

And I agree with you guys, I don´t like mercantilist face the forum has taken, I see the same problem in my other hobby (cycling), people expends tons of time talking about bikes and no time at all talking about cycling. I don´t care anything bikes they are just a piece of metal, here I prefer flutting over flutes.

[2T00TS]

Hello Chaps,
I wondered if any of you have played a Kaval before, and if so I would be interested to hear your impressions and appraisal of them. We are going to see this outlandishly talented Romanian Gypsy Folk band next Monday called
Taraf De Haidouks and one of the musicians plays this type of flute to great effect. Any information on playing technique, good makers etc.. would be greatly appreciated, and might even distract us from the Gloomy Liquidity Universal Malaise ( G.L.U.M. to the economists ) we all seem to be bound up in. ( at least for a while anyway )
Owen.

[MTGuru]

Kaval ... Any information on playing technique, good makers etc.. would be greatly appreciated

You should probably take that discussion to the World/Folk Winds Forum. Because, you know ... kaval. - Mod

[Nanohedron]

Because, you know ... kaval. - Mod

But let's leave this one here. He very aptly illustrates part of the problem, after all.

[2T00TS]

Thanks for the nudge mods ( or should that be Party Whips ) - whether their flutes are " off limits " or not, If you want to lift your spirits I strongly recommend that you check this troop of travelling musicians out on you tube. Who knows after a stiff dose of pure genius you might want to discuss flutes again ? ( so long as they are the correct shape )

[MadmanWithaWhistle]

From my perspective, the economy in the US hasn't been so good for young people, who I would think would be a large market for new flutes. Based on the number of job postings I see for management-level positions versus entry-level positions in the sciences, my own struggle to find work is fairly typical. I burned through half my savings on costs associated with finding work (this involved moving 1500 miles from home). Thankfully I now have a job in an endotoxin lab in St. Paul, but a lot of highly educated people are still searching. I myself sold a number of instruments to get out here, and when my order is up with Tony Millyard, I will barely be able to afford it.

[Casey Burns]

This is all very interesting and useful and insightful. Keep it coming!

The latest news about the Bond Market crashing is interesting and one of my financial gurus is saying that the current rally and boom is not going to end well. I just wonder how it will compare with 2007-2008. For me then my flutes orders went down some, but stayed above a minimum of 8-10 flutes a month which is more than enough to sustain my family. In many ways I hardly noticed it - which is what happens when one is a widget maker with a steady market and the flute market overall remains steady or I would have been doing this for the last 33 years! Frankly the downturn is giving me some badly needed breathing space. And time to make some other types of instruments and enjoy the process.

Casey

[Caspermilktoast]

I have noticed there have been a lot of uilleann pipes up for sale as well. Really nice full stets too. It seems to me that there is a lot of activity around tax time. There seems to be a wave of offerings from late Feb to late April. Just an observation.

I often wonder if the market is saturated. How many new flute players looking for a wooden flute come around every year? There are so many good makers around as well as a healthy used market. The Irish Flute Store does not seem to have a problem selling flutes...I recently sold a flute through them and it didn't even make it to the website!

Another problem I see is this. I am a contractor and I had one of my best grossing years last year. Even though it was good on paper, the money does not go very far it seems. Operation costs and cost of living have gone way up recent years. Not much left to go around....

I like the for sale adds in the general discussion. I have never found it distracting.

[kmag]

I think much of the reason you see posts here for flutes is that discussion of the instrument for sale is not allowed in the for sale section. If a person doesn't want too much banter about the instrument that is a good place to post. There is always PM for questions to the seller, of course.

It seems that about half of the time the discussion here is more about why they are selling it rather than about the instrument itself, or a complete sidetrack. For the person that wants to answer questions and discuss the instrument publicly this is the place.

Two places for different levels of engagement in my mind.

[Nanohedron]

Two places for different levels of engagement in my mind.

That is entirely the idea. Everyone wins, even if they don't like it.