Wait Times and Flute Making during the Greater Depression

[Casey Burns]

Am seeing definite effects of the lousy and collapsing economy on my flute orders coming in, including quite a few cancellations due to people being flat out broke, some from underemployment. Fewer new orders coming in compared with the rate that flutes are going out. Even with the good exchange rate I am getting fewer international orders. The good news is that my wait times are getting shorter and shorter, and people will have to wait less, if at all eventually. Currently for something keyless, 2-3 months and only about twice that for something keyed.

If I run out of orders I'll just start stocking up an inventory of flutes, ready to sell. The last time this happened was right after Bush got elected. Previously it was the early 90s recession under the previous Bush. During that time, I took off a few years to build our house, and only worked on flutes for a few days every month. This time I don't have that luxury with higher bills to pay and a daughter in her last year of college!

I wonder about other makers and their waiting times. I know from talking to a number of guitar makers and other luthiers that their waiting lists have similarly collapsed, many to zero. Flute makers? Chris Wilkes mentions on his website that he has a 10 year wait time. Either his output is really slow, or his website needs updating. I have a hard time believing that figure, given the current state of the economy. On the other hand, it would be easy to fill a wait list if the commitment to be placed on a list is only 50 GBP. Its hard to gauge other makers.

Clearly the days of Flute Acquisition Disorder are long gone! The flute bubble has popped. However, this is just the low point of the cycle and I've been through this before and made it through fine. Its just this time I am well stocked with the materials and supplies needed so my overhead is low. I can keep producing, and may also spend some time developing some new ideas, such as a less expensive and easier to produce keyed flute, a low flute in G, and maybe even a bass flute in D. Don't expect these last few items to have a small handed version, however!

Other makers - how go your waiting lists?

Casey

[benhall.1]

Chris has recently upped his waiting time from 10 years, first to 12 years and, more recently, 14 years. He hasn't updated his website for a while. The later figures provided there were some months ago, mind, so maybe his list has come down dramatically to 13 years now.

[James_Alto]

Clearly the days of Flute Acquisition Disorder are long gone! The flute bubble has popped. However, this is just the low point of the cycle and I've been through this before and made it through fine. Its just this time I am well stocked with the materials and supplies needed so my overhead is low. I can keep producing, and may also spend some time developing some new ideas, such as a less expensive and easier to produce keyed flute, a low flute in G, and maybe even a bass flute in D. Don't expect these last few items to have a small handed version, however!

Casey

Sorry to hear that. My F.A.D. is no fad and hasn't gone. The problem is, if the rest of internet users, are like me, then flute makers are in big trouble. As a flute player and buyer, we're more picky and selective about what we buy. Whereas we might like what we see on youtube, it's very different, buying a flute off the internet, versus handling the flute in real life, and deciding if it's ideal or not, especially if a flute costs several hundreds of $$$ rather than around $100.

Materials have indeed gone up in cost - and I think most customers recognise this. However, the 'world flute' phenomenon, may mean, that some of us don't want to have 20 penny whistles, when we could have a kaval; a dizi; a guanzi, a shukuhachi, and a penny whistle. The other area where the flute market remains very underdeveloped, as you've identified, is in the low bass sector. A low bass D flute sounds like a glorious plan! I have a few bass F flutes and bass F recorders, but no bass D.

Good luck too - I hope you get the support you deserve.

[O_Gaiteiro_do_Chicago]

In my humble opinion if a maker is good enough I don't think the economy would have much of an effect on their waiting list, there's always someone willing to buy one of their instruments. I'm on the list of two of the top flute makers in this country, and believe me from what I hear there is no change in the market. I think what you are up against is your main market is likely folk flutes, and there alone you cannot expect those sort of folks to be in the best economic shape. If someone cannot spend more than $500 for a flute it's likely a matter of they live from one paycheck to the next, understandable it's a big investment. But for those makers who specialize in keyed flutes their clients usually have either saved up for such a flute or are in better financial shape. As for your keyless high end flutes, I think it's just a matter of there is a lot of second hand ones that show up for sale and that market might be saturated at the moment as used flutes are most definitely affordable and there is now wait. You may want to build a few keyed flutes, or some of your keyless low flutes, you don't see a lot of those show up for sale used.

[tucson_whistler]

I wrote Mr. Wilkes an email a few months ago about his wait list and he kindly replied, saying he has made a few flutes in the last few years just to make ends meet, but wasn't sure of the state of his wait list as he basically is no longer making flutes due to personal reasons.

Which is a bummer.

Fyi, for anyone interested, Mr. Cronnolly told me in an email that he's considering retiring, so if you had any designs on buying an M&E flute you might want to get in touch with him now...

cheers,
eric

[James_Alto]

Fyi, for anyone interested, Mr. Cronnolly told me in an email that he's considering retiring, so if you had any designs on buying an M&E flute you might want to get in touch with him now...

Has he not already retired?

His website price/ordering form is down.

I love County Mayo. If I bought one, I'd rather go and visit too

It's a shame Easyjet terminated their flights to the Knock airport.

The polymer ones were tantalising. I'm relatively new to the polymer market. Francois de Villiers (on this board) is also making flutes out of polymer which I've promised to try first!

[Casey Burns]

O-Gaitero_do_Chicago wrote:
"In my humble opinion if a maker is good enough I don't think the economy would have much of an effect on their waiting list, there's always someone willing to buy one of their instruments. I'm on the list of two of the top flute makers in this country, and believe me from what I hear there is no change in the market....."

Not according to my data. I've been watching the "levels" on my waiting list for some time. The top levels don't seem to have as much significance as the bottom levels - that is, the minimum number of flutes in my queue, including Folk Flutes. It was the highest in about 2005 at 147 instruments. Then went down and settled never below 45 instruments for a number of years. But in 2009 this dropped to 30 instruments, as the minimum number in my queue. This held until early this year and I've seen minimums approaching single digits. Some of this is that I've been feeling better than 2005-2009, when I thought I had Lyme Disease (was Sleep Apnea mixed with dark chocolate instead) and so I've been more productive and getting more work out and faster and more efficiently. But some of this (especially the order cancellations which are rare) is definitely the economy. May was a good month for orders - I think because of tax refunds. Same last year.

There are a few makers with large followings for sure who are regarded as top makers, and pursue such distinction. But I know of some top makers of various instruments whose queues are definitely down. It may be that the makers you are referring to have enough orders that they aren't needing to pay attention - or they are promoting a certain kind of fiction. Or they do have a long waiting list (I can believe this with Pat Olwell and Rod Cameron, but few others).

I could just as easily say I have a 5 or 10 year waiting list, and could do so in the years leading up to my potential retirement as a justification for raising my prices and building my stature! I could simply charge $50 to put people on my waiting list - though whether I was a flute maker or a "waiting list maker" would perhaps become an issue. If 1000 people a year paid me $50 to reserve space on a waiting list for some flute that I don't have to make until 2021, I could earn $50,000 a year for just creating a spreadsheet recording this data. Do that for 3-4 years while I vacation in Fiji, and ponder if and when I should really get back to my lathe.

The idea that Chris Wilkes is retiring and only produces a few instruments a year makes me feel a little better about his 10 year wait! If its true that he produces 2-3 flutes a year, that is only 20-30 instruments, which is nominally close to my average these days (though his may be 8 keyed flutes and mine may be Folk Flutes).

This is a really interesting and useful discussion. It would be nice to hear from other makers - though I know some would rather not divulge this type of info.

Casey

[FascinatedWanderer]

Just got back from Aebi's workshop, and his wait times are closing in on 2 years. He requires a 20% deposit too, which works out to nearly $1000 for an 8 key.

[Akiba]

Casey,

Glad to hear your doing much better health-wise, and don't have the dreaded Lyme disease. Mazel Tov.

Jason

[efran]

The idea of the 'production Line' is definately not an endearing attribute when it comes to the ecconomic needs of the flute maker versus the need of their would be clients. In fact it is quite disturbing. ( Been there, done that and still doing it )

To buy a flute 'blind' is an enormous gamble. The bottom line is that every flute player has a different embouchure and what they hope to buy when they order a 'custom' made flute is a flute that fits them.

Somehow I feel this has been lost somwhere along the way. More often than not its a case of post it out and bon voyage - I think that the flute maker / flute player relationship needs to find a more intimate way of doing business together. Sure the shillings are a little harder to come buy, but the serious players out there are eternally looking for that elusive flute that will 'fit' them and 'rock' their world. I feel that its more of a shall I take the gamble aspect? rather than no money in the piggy bank that more often than not deters one from taking the plunge and placing the order.

[kkrell]

The idea of the 'production Line' is definately not an endearing attribute when it comes to the ecconomic needs of the flute maker versus the need of their would be clients. In fact it is quite disturbing.

Is this related to some other thread, perhaps? I don't believe there has been any mention of a production line approach even mentioned here.

There are certainly some basic steps required in preparation and seasoning of wood, initial boring, hole placement, etc. that occur over a fairly long period. My Hammy flute spent about a year as a piece of wood with a hole in it. Final finishing and tuning of "custom" flutes is often performed with a specific customer need/requirement in mind. Anyway, in Casey's case, a certain portion of his product "line" does have a known target audience and price point, and I'm sure those flutes are made to match his expectations, as note his wood-burning stove video.

[Casey Burns]

Efran was probably referring to my comment of "efficiency".

Actually I do make flutes in batches frequently - but all this does is save me the time to set up the tools for each step of the way. Much of the work is repetitive, and doesn't really require much thought once the tools are sharpened and put where they are needed. After 3000 some flutes I see a need to spend less time on the set up of tooling for each flute by doing them in such batches. But the amount of time building each flute is the same as if I was doing each one by hand, setting up the tooling for each, if one ignores the tool setup time. This is not an assembly line. Its just practical. I've probably saved several years of standing at the lathe with this approach.

It also helps in these days of no so certain wood to make spares of parts and this is best done in batches. Out of a batch of some 20 head joints, for instance, sometimes 4-5 of them will get rejected due to flaws that aren't visible when the wood is still in its original form. On the other end of the process, it helps to have several flutes to tune and voice all at once. I will actually use the flawed pieces to practice and warm up my tuning and voicing skills on, so that when I am doing this step on the more perfect pieces, I am less likely to blow it. But even that happens occasionally and so its useful to have another piece of wood ready and waiting in the wings to finish that instrument so I can get it out to the waiting client.

I don't understand this need for a romantic (perhaps) and endearing notion that a flute be made one at a time, carved from a solid block using a treadle lathe and traditional spoon bits for the bore, as it much have been done in the past based on someone's incorrect history of technology - and that this approach will make a better flute than one rendered by more modern methods. Actually, lathe turning was quite sophisticated in the Baroque era onward, using water as motive power. Rudall's shop, according to the pictures I have seen of it, looks to me more like a typical 19th century British sweat shop than a romantically endearing place to work. I can make a realistic hourly wage using my current methods in my own sweat shop, thank you! If this doesn't meet someone's preconception of how their flute should be made, they can take their shopping elsewhere. I've had the occasional customer put off by use of such 'modern technology' as metal lathes (I don't even mention the use of lasers to engrave my makers stamp!).

Efran's comment on flute buying being an enormous gamble seems besides the point of this original discussion. Maybe the economic situation makes the stakes somewhat higher but I think the bottom line is whether or not the gamble is affordable. Plenty seem willing to make this gamble when the economy is good because they can afford it. When the economy isn't good and they are broke, its not a matter of trusting the maker to deliver a good flute. Its a matter of choosing a new or used flute over something more important like having food on the table. And although it would be great if there could be more of an intimate relationship between maker and player, this isn't practical in a world market. Finally, given the choice between people who trust me enough to make a flute for them that they send me their money, versus someone who insists that they have to come visit me try everything first so that the flute will rock their world possibly - I'd rather do business with the former. Give us makers some credit that we know what we are doing!

Casey

[Elvellon]

I wonder about other makers and their waiting times. I know from talking to a number of guitar makers and other luthiers that their waiting lists have similarly collapsed, many to zero.

Terry McGee:
Important Announcement!
In order to catch up on a rather too-large backlog of orders, special orders, repairs, restorations and other projects, I'm not accepting any new orders for a while.

[Doug_Tipple]

Finally, given the choice between people who trust me enough to make a flute for them that they send me their money, versus someone who insists that they have to come visit me try everything first so that the flute will rock their world possibly - I'd rather do business with the former. Give us makers some credit that we know what we are doing!

Casey, your sentiments are mine in this regard. I will say no more about the subject.

With regard to the maker's mark, Casey, I admire the laser engraving on your flutes. However, I also admire the simple hand signatures on other works of art, such as paintings, pottery, etc. For me, there is something very personal and important about a signature made by a human hand. Can you imagine a Van Gogh with a laser engraving on the bottom?

[Hup]

I don't buy flutes just for the sake of it. I'd like to get an
8-keyed flute, but I don't know who to go to. I'd be more likely
to put in an order for anyone's flute if I heard a good recording or
two. These are an indicator that it's possible to get good sounds out
of them, given a competent player. I'm not very interested in how they look.