Chiff & Fipple Orders Mandatory Evacuation

[OnTheMoor]

On CNN, again, the correspondent is saying the field of the Super Dome, where everyone who is still in the city will be, will most likely flood during the storm. Several thousand people, water (and who knows what) and no air conditioning, would make for a very ugly scene. It is really tough for us who are not accustomed to such things to imagine what it must be like. In these parts, a serious storm is something neat, when the lights go out, it makes for a fun night in. I can't imagine how powerful something like this would be.

[izzarina]

My good friend's son and family got out of Biloxi fine, but his wife's brother died of a massive heart attack as they were leaving. She has no way of getting back now. He apparently died while with their parents, and their father is dying of cancer. I can only imagine what they all must be going through with that as well as the realization that they may not even have a house when they are able to return. If you all can spare a few prayers and thoughts, I'd appreciate it.

[scottielvr]

Just got an email with this, from a friend whose daughter, a meteorologist, forwarded it to her. The original sender commented that this NWS statement was unlike any other he'd ever seen issued. It speaks for itself. May God help the good people of New Orleans and vicinity.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
> NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
> 1011 AM CDT SUN AUG 28 2005
>
...DEVASTATING DAMAGE EXPECTED...
>
.HURRICANE KATRINA...A MOST POWERFUL HURRICANE WITH UNPRECEDENTED STRENGTH...RIVALING THE INTENSITY OF HURRICANE CAMILLE OF 1969.
>
MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE UNINHABITABLE FOR WEEKS...PERHAPS LONGER. AT LEAST ONE HALF OF WELL CONSTRUCTED HOMES WILL HAVE ROOF AND WALL FAILURE. ALL GABLED ROOFS WILL FAIL...LEAVING THOSE HOMES SEVERELY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
>
THE MAJORITY OF INDUSTRIAL BUILDINGS WILL BECOME NON FUNCTIONAL. PARTIAL TO COMPLETE WALL AND ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED. ALL WOOD FRAMED LOW RISING APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL BE DESTROYED. CONCRETE BLOCK LOW RISE APARTMENTS WILL SUSTAIN MAJOR DAMAGE...INCLUDING SOME WALL AND ROOF FAILURE.
>
HIGH RISE OFFICE AND APARTMENT BUILDINGS WILL SWAY DANGEROUSLY...A FEW TO THE POINT OF TOTAL COLLAPSE. ALL WINDOWS WILL BLOW OUT.

AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL BE WIDESPREAD...AND MAY INCLUDE HEAVY ITEMS SUCH AS HOUSEHOLD APPLIANCES AND EVEN LIGHT VEHICLES. SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES AND LIGHT TRUCKS WILL BE MOVED. THE BLOWN DEBRIS WILL CREATE ADDITIONAL DESTRUCTION. PERSONS...PETS...AND LIVESTOCK EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL FACE CERTAIN DEATH IF STRUCK.

POWER OUTAGES WILL LAST FOR WEEKS...AS MOST POWER POLES WILL BE DOWN AND TRANSFORMERS DESTROYED. WATER SHORTAGES WILL MAKE HUMAN SUFFERING INCREDIBLE BY MODERN STANDARDS.
>
THE VAST MAJORITY OF NATIVE TREES WILL BE SNAPPED OR UPROOTED. ONLY THE HEARTIEST WILL REMAIN STANDING...BUT BE TOTALLY DEFOLIATED. FEW CROPS WILL REMAIN. LIVESTOCK LEFT EXPOSED TO THE WINDS WILL BE KILLED.

AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR HURRICANE FORCE...OR FREQUENT GUSTS AT OR ABOVE HURRICANE FORCE...ARE CERTAIN WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

ONCE TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ONSET...DO NOT VENTURE OUTSIDE!

[Dale]

Aaron Brown on CNN asked this question a few minutes ago.

"What are the chances we're going to be sitting here tomorrow night saying, My God, we've lost a city?"

The professor of something-or-other he was asking said, "50-50."

Dale

[Cynth]

HURRICANE KATRINA DISCUSSION NUMBER 25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2005

THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS REGARDING THE INTENSITY OF KATRINA.
THE NOAA AIRCRAFT NEAR 00Z REPORTED A PEAK FLIGHT LEVEL WIND OF 155
KT...WHICH WOULD NORMALLY CORRESPOND TO 140 KT AT THE SURFACE. THE
PRESSURE REMAINS EXTREMELY LOW...904 MB AT LAST REPORT. ON THE
OTHER HAND...THE STEPPED-FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER...OR
SFMR...SUGGESTED WINDS WERE IN THE 120-130 KT RANGE...AND LIMITED
DROPSONDE DATA ALSO SUGGESTED SOMETHING A LITTLE BELOW 140 KT.
THERE ARE ENOUGH QUESTIONS ABOUT THE PERFORMANCE OF THE SFMR AT
THESE SPEEDS FOR ME TO STICK WITH THE STANDARD 90 PERCENT
ADJUSTMENT FOR NOW.

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME MODEST CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF KATRINA OVER
THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES SHOW THAT AN OUTER
EYEWALL IS IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES...AND THE LATEST IR IMAGES SHOW
A LESS WELL-DEFINED EYEWALL WITH MORE EVIDENCE OF OUTER BANDING.
THE NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS ALSO REPORTED AN EROSION OF THE EYEWALL
IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THESE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT THERE
COULD BE SOME WEAKENING OF KATRINA PRIOR TO LANDFALL. ALL THIS IS
RELATIVE...HOWEVER...AND KATRINA IS STILL EXPECTED TO BE OF AT
LEAST CATEGORY FOUR INTENSITY WHEN IT REACHES THE COAST. AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT AT THIS POINT IS NOT ALL GOOD NEWS...AS THEY ARE
GENERALLY ACCOMPANIED BY A BROADENING OF THE WIND FIELD...SO THAT
EVEN AS KATRINA WEAKENS THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN THE AREA THAT
EXPERIENCES MAJOR HURRICANE FORCE WINDS.

THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. THE
INITIAL MOTION IS 335/9. KATRINA IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY TURN
NORTHWARD INTO A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ASSOCIATED WITH A
LARGE MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE NEAR THE GREAT LAKES. MODEL GUIDANCE
REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED...WITH THE NOGAPS SHIFTING JUST A BIT
EAST OF ITS PREVIOUS TRACK. WHILE THERE IS GREAT SIGNIFICANCE FOR
THE CITY OF NEW ORLEANS IN THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK...TRACK
ANOMOLIES OF 30-50 MILES ARE STILL POSSIBLE EVEN 12-18 HOURS OUT.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 047.shtml?Sounds like maybe a slight improvement. At this point, anything could spare a few lives maybe.

[Lambchop]

On CNN, again, the correspondent is saying the field of the Super Dome, where everyone who is still in the city will be, will most likely flood during the storm. Several thousand people, water (and who knows what) and no air conditioning, would make for a very ugly scene. It is really tough for us who are not accustomed to such things to imagine what it must be like. In these parts, a serious storm is something neat, when the lights go out, it makes for a fun night in. I can't imagine how powerful something like this would be.

Right now, it's about like a 30-mile-wide tornado.

And now, they're saying they don't know if the dome will hold.

[Sunnywindo]

Been busy lately, haven't kept on the news regular like, and was totally taken by surprise tonight by this. Last I heard this storm had hit Florida as a much smaller storm... turn on the news this evening to hear it's turned into an absolute monster. Had to stop in and see what the word was with folks around here regarding it. This is shaping up to be a truly cataclysmic hurricane.... Those poor people, I'm praying there's something left of New Orleans for them to come back to when Katrina is done... and all those people who are still in the city, oh this is looking so bad.....

Sara

[Cynth]

Hey, haven't seen you around for ages . I've just been watching the coverage on TV and it sure looks terrible. I guess it is much wider than the other strongest storms so it will affect such a broad area. And it's so strong, that even if it gets weaker it will still be a catastrophe. I guess there isn't any hope for a miracle. I hope the people in the Super Dome will be okay.

[Tony]

This is a visable loop that takes a minute or so to completely load:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

at 3am EDT it looks as if the eye wall is about 20-30 miles off shore

[Walden]

[ninjaaron]

Those satellite pictures are among the most terrifying things I've ever seen, just thinking about something so destructive being so big, and all anyone can do is run.

It's like waiting... for something really bad. Can't think of apporiate analogy.

I like Wisconsin today.

[Wombat]

I'm wondering what precedents there are for destruction on the predicted scale. I don't have the necessary references with me now but I seem to recall that Galveston was destroyed in similar circumstances about 90 years ago. Of course, Galveston then would have been nowhere near the size of New Orleans now.

[Walden]

I'm wondering what precedents there are for destruction on the predicted scale.

The mind goes to that Noah and the Ark thread.

I don't have the necessary references with me now but I seem to recall that Galveston was destroyed in similar circumstances about 90 years ago. Of course, Galveston then would have been nowhere near the size of New Orleans now.

It looks very, very, bad. They are saying 4th largest storm on record on the planet.

[Joseph E. Smith]

I don't have the necessary references with me now but I seem to recall that Galveston was destroyed in similar circumstances about 90 years ago. Of course, Galveston then would have been nowhere near the size of New Orleans now.

I believe that the # is between 6-12,000 souls, it was very hard at the time (and still is) to caculate to loss as the numbers were so incredibly high, and there was really no way to account for everyone living in and around Galveston at the time. It is still the largest loss of life due to natural disaster in the USA.... very chilling.

http://www.baynews9.com/Trop2.html

[beowulf573]

It looks like the storm is going to pass to the east of New Orleans by about 20 miles or so, so they should be spared the absolute worst. One report I read said the damage should be merely "incredible" instead of "devastating".

My thoughts are out to anyone in the middle of this mess. I've gone through my share of hurricanes here in Houston, there were fun as kids but not so much as an adult now that you know what's really going on.