OT - The Home Computer in 2004 - A 50-year-old Prediction

[Nanohedron]

Leave it to Snopes to straighten us gullibles out.

I sure took the bait: hook, line & sinker. Although I thought the steering wheel -- or helm -- was a little fishy.

Will O'Ban

Nah. That evolved into the mouse.

[Will O'B]

Leave it to Snopes to straighten us gullibles out.

I sure took the bait: hook, line & sinker. Although I thought the steering wheel -- or helm -- was a little fishy.

Will O'Ban

Nah. That evolved into the mouse.

HA!!! Good one, Nano.

[NicoMoreno]

Back in the early '60s, Willy Ley wrote an article for Analog magazine, comparing the actual pace of technological progress with the expectations of the man on the street, scientists, and science fiction writers. He found that, in general, the actual pace far outstripped even the predictions of science fiction writers.

A recent article (er I read it recently, I but I don't remember whether it was the latest, or one of the ones from 1976) from that same magazine (Analog), that I read, talked about how the pace of technological improvement was more of an exponential curve. The major problem with predictions was that people tended to predict based on linear assumptions. Hence, in the near future, the guesses were well over the actual result, but in the more distant future well under! (I think this is like 1 and 20 years for near and distant respectively)

[emmline]

The thing that confused, and should have alerted me was the poor wording in the text: "..created this model to illustrate how a 'home computer' could look like..."

This is not the word choice of a Scientific American copy writer, even in 1954.

[BEC]

The Snopes page has a link to the actual source of that picture - some sort of image-modification competition. There are some hilarious things there........

http://forums.fark.com/cgi/fark/comment ... nk=1115586

[Flyingcursor]

And I was just getting ready to send the picture to all my techno cronies.

Does anyone remember the old '60's TV show in the US, hosted by Walter Cronkite called "The Year 2000"?

I'd love to find information on some of their predictions.

Will O'B It sounds like your classmate had an acute acumen. However was he acute enough to invest in Microsoft in the early 70's?

[Will O'B]

Does anyone remember the old '60's TV show in the US, hosted by Walter Cronkite called "The Year 2000"?

I'd love to find information on some of their predictions.

I remember . . . although I keep thinking for the wrong reason that the name was "The 21st Century," based on his other documentary program "The 20th Century." Oh, well. Anyway, it was a good show. They had a lot of theories on travel as I recall, like flying cars and jet propelled body packs (like they used on "Lost In Space").

It's not from that television show, but I used to be amused when I read old Life Magazine articles (from the library archives) dating from before World War II through the 1970's that talked about life in the future. There was one article that stands out in my mind from 1946 or 1947, right after the war, that talked about how everyone by the early 1960's would have their own little helicopter and a helio port instead of a garage next to their house. The helicopter was seen as a way to cut down on road congestion and to get people to work faster. Additionally, it was interesting to read articles from the '60s while the Vietnam thing was heating up and getting hotter, before the commentators had the advantage of hindsight. It was also very sad by the way, because it was like reliving a very horrible time in this country and in Nam. *sigh*

You seem like the kind of guy who would enjoy the old magazines. I know I do.

Will O'B It sounds like your classmate had an acute acumen. However was he acute enough to invest in Microsoft in the early 70's?

That's a very good question. I haven't seen old Tim since high school, so I can't say how he's fared in that area. It would be interesting to know though. Mrs Moore's (the math teacher's) nephew was no slouch either. He went on to help develop the landing mechanism for the first space craft that landed on Mars. He's 10 years older than me.

Now if I may toot my own horn for a moment. I have been saying for the last 20 years that someday there would be cars that have an auto-pilot like airplanes. Talk about ridicule . . . wow. After telling my wife and son that for the umpteenth billionth time, they featured a working prototype of just such a vehicle on the news! I was vindicated!!! With GPS, and electronic sensors, etc the time is coming when you will be able to leave the driving to your car -- which I suppose is bad news for truck drivers and taxi drivers.

Will O'Ban

[Flyingcursor]

You're right Will. I think it was called "The 21st Century". Maybe there's something online about it.

I do like looking at old magazines. Especially the advertisements. (Honestly, I like the articles, not the pictures)
I found a site once full of that stuff and I cannot remember the name.

[Will O'B]

I do like looking at old magazines. Especially the advertisements. (Honestly, I like the articles, not the pictures)
I found a site once full of that stuff and I cannot remember the name.

If you ever remember let me know. I did a search a while back and the only stuff I could find was on paid sites. Maybe I'm cheap, but it's more fun when it's free at the library.

Will O'Ban

[OutOfBreath]

My brother sent me this a while back. I suspect that it is a photoshop exercise, at least the caption. If you notice the caption has bad grammar and is much sharper / higher resolution than the picture it accompanies.

It is clever, though.

[fearfaoin]

My brother sent me this a while back. I suspect that it is a photoshop exercise, at least the caption.

Yes, as BEC said, this was a Photoshop contest on Fark forums. They do this a lot.
An image is given, and folks are encouraged to modify it and post their results.
The original is a picture a submarine maneuvering Room mockup that was in a museum:

<img src="http://www.chinfo.navy.mil/navpalib/new ... t-manu.jpg">

[glauber]

The sad thing is that, now that i know it's fake, it's pretty obvious that the outlines of the teletype and of the guy-in-suit are sharper than the rest of the scene. But i really wanted this to be true, so it looked real to me...

Until now, i thought Darwin could not be fooled!

[RonKiley]

Don't feel bad Glauber I was in charge of developing submarine controle consoles and control systems for the Navy. I don't expect this kind of joke on here. Why I wouldn't I don't know because this is exactly the kind of thing to expect here.

Good show
Ron

[Darwin]

Until now, i thought Darwin could not be fooled!

Nope. It happened once before, too, back in the Spring of '57.

[Mack.Hoover]

I had a portable computer in 1956!
http://www.sphere.bc.ca/test/sruniverse.html
And a cordless screw driver in 1976 which I still use!
http://www.rubylane.com/shops/donsmemor ... ?froogle=1