2-headed R&R just sold on eBay - oh, the times!

[jemtheflute]

Look what just went on eBay for a ridiculous £1,805.55. A real two-headed monster of a flute! I'm surprised no-one had flagged it here..... I didn't myself because, given the state of the market, I thought it worth taking a punt - and I only just missed out, though financially that's just as well. Maybe this result will make David M feel a bit better about his recent sale. These flutes are only getting just over half what they would have even a year ago. I reckon this is a temporary situation and prices/purchaser power will recover in time, but now is certainly a good time to be buying if you can! (Well, that was my excuse for risking a credit card bill I can't really/really can't afford..... )

[benhall.1]

Wow! Wouldn't I have been happy if I'd got that a little while ago. I need to sell something, but it seems now may not be the right time ...

[ancientfifer]

And now we await the posting (with photos and sound clip maybe?) from the lucky Chiffer who snagged that sweet deal and wishes to swagger a little about it

[dontf]

Sound of gnashing teeth, deep sighs.....

[radcliff]

Quite rare to see a 2 heads in its own original case... ridicolous price i have to say...

[kkrell]

Since it was a donated item (presumed free), look how much it made for the organization.

I didn't see it because I'm not logged into eBay UK, and they weren't offering it to the US. Even checking them as a Saved Seller (or See Other Items) doesn't bring up any items unless you're logged into that country's version of eBay.

[Casey Burns]

I think like expensive houses that have fallen in price a similar thing could be expected of flutes. I was once offered a lovely R&R in boxwood in flawless condition for $1500, in the mid 80s. But then there was a bit of a bubble in Japan and one with a patent head sold at Sotheby's for around $4500. So the race was on. In the 70s one could pick these up for less than $1000, as people were just rediscovering them. From about 1986 to recent times these have been way beyond what I could pay for them.

Fast forward. Our bubbles have burst in real estate and almost everything else and globally we are teetering on the brink of a Recession or Depression or whatever they'll call it. Musical instruments of the highly sought after categories such as Strad violins are still fetching higher prices, along with paintings by Dali etc. In fact, I heard of some Strad being auctioned recently and some sort of hedge fund company bought it. As good as Gold, which is the only asset that hasn't dropped in value in the last decade (now staying above $1800/oz). But mid 19th century flutes, even by one of the top makers, are still relatively commonplace in the greater scheme of things. Thus their price will fluctuate up and down, currently down as the demand (not to be confused with desire) and the ability to pay for such items appears way down right now. Thus laying in a stock of Rudall flutes to sell at some later date is perhaps not a viable business model. Maybe this would work with Claude Laurent glass flutes, which do command a hefty price at auction.

Other instruments. I got my lovely Shelly Park guitar for around $4300. An original Selmer Maccaferri like the one Django played is still theoretically affordable for $25,000 to $40,000. Gypsy Jazz is undergoing a huge explosion currently - so the pressure is upward on the fine old guitars. But eventually it will abate some, and in the meantime there is a growth in the number of makers making these guitars. I am considering building a few myself to try a few design ideas out. But I doubt if a Selmer Maccaferri is really something that one could invest in and make money without risk. On the other hand, one could get it to enjoy and that would be the best reason for having one. But I am happy with my Shelley Park, which is a great guitar for me. I bought it to enjoy, not as an investment. Thus someday my heirs may end up selling it and it may go for less - or more - depending upon how common these are (mine is #250) and how highly sought after these are.

So I am not surprised at that low price for a Rudall and it seems reasonable. Someone got a lovely flute for a good deal. I wonder about its history, and why the two head joints.

It becomes more interesting when making newer versions of similar flutes. But then it begs the question why someone would spend a bigger chunk of change on a modern copy compared with a lesser priced original. In some cases the modern made flute is a better choice. Warranties, customizations, etc. The truth of the matter from my own perspective is that orders for my higher end keyed flutes are way down right now - and I suspect the same for most other makers. I am fine with that as too much key making this last winter and spring has given me some tendonitis and carpal tunnel syndrome symptoms. Another factor is that deals such as this eBay flute just aren't happening every day. These might simply be anomalies while people have their attention elsewhere (such as on the 9/11 anniversary this weekend, extracting the last bit of summer enjoyment in the northern Hemisphere, or drying out from all the floods on the East Coast. Or simply struggling to survive!).

Casey

[m31]

The ebay listing states, "Interested parties outside of the UK will need to arrange their own postal collection and payment please". Chances are this listing escaped everyone's radar. Anyone outside the UK who spotted it likely got cooled off by the terms.

Do eBay flute (R&R) prices really tell us anything about the status of the economy, disposable income, or consumer habits?

http://www.bmwoffreehold.com/news_and_e ... he_us.aspx
http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/2 ... sales.html

Not likely. Any observations made of our nano-niche market might indicate trends in our nano-niche market. But any extrapolation of that is indeed a s-t-r-e-t-c-h.

[jemtheflute]

Do eBay flute (R&R) prices really tell us anything about the status of the economy, disposable income, or consumer habits?

I wouldn't see them as macro-indicators, for sure - and I don't think most (if any) of us here are trying to argue any such thing. I certainly didn't. However I do think this situation is probably reasonably viewed as a symptom of wider malaise - the wider economic context is pretty obvious, and what other reason can be adduced for the self-evidently lower values and/or slower sales being recorded in this specialist niche market?

There isn't really a glut of goods for it simply to be a supply-demand issue - the numbers of these flutes coming to light/market appears fairly constant (yes, I have fairly extensive records, and yes, prices being achieved are lower and more offered sales are not being made because asking prices are being rejected....), even given that there may be some vendors who are putting out when they would not otherwise choose to do so because of other financial pressures, and who are therefore constrained to accept lower sale prices than they might wish or would accept in other circumstances, whether or not the potential buyers are fewer and/or unable to spend as much as formerly because of their situations. To be sure, there's some pretty normal market forces action going on.

[m31]

Do eBay flute (R&R) prices really tell us anything about the status of the economy, disposable income, or consumer habits?

I wouldn't see them as macro-indicators, for sure - and I don't think most (if any) of us here are trying to argue any such thing. I certainly didn't. However I do think this situation is probably reasonably viewed as a symptom of wider malaise - the wider economic context is pretty obvious,

You're saying it is and isn't correlative with macroeconomic trends.

and what other reason can be adduced for the self-evidently lower values and/or slower sales being recorded in this specialist niche market?

You're saying in the absence of another explanation, yours must be valid. What if we are simply fulfilling a collective self-fulfilling prophecy expounded by C&F pundits? We think the flute market is weak (due to any number of unsubstantiated reasons), therefore it must be.

In any case, I'd love to see a bar chart.

There isn't really a glut of goods for it simply to be a supply-demand issue - the numbers of these flutes coming to light/market appears fairly constant (yes, I have fairly extensive records, and yes, prices being achieved are lower and more offered sales are not being made because asking prices are being rejected....), even given that there may be some vendors who are putting out when they would not otherwise choose to do so because of other financial pressures, and who are therefore constrained to accept lower sale prices than they might wish or would accept in other circumstances, whether or not the potential buyers are fewer and/or unable to spend as much as formerly because of their situations. To be sure, there's some pretty normal market forces action going on.

Lots of could be's there. Mid-size SUVs are up 50.7% from last year in the U.S. Go figure.

[jemtheflute]

You're saying it is and isn't correlative with macroeconomic trends.

No. You misinterpret. I meant I would not claim or intend to suggest that (I had the technical expertise to say that) flutes are a legitimate or meaningful macro-indicator. However, it doesn't seem unreasonable (as a layman) to suspect the generality of the wider situation is influential on the flute market - which is not the same thing as saying it is the cause.

You're saying in the absence of another explanation, yours must be valid.

Poppycock. I neither said nor implied anything of the sort - I offered a musing supposition about the reasonableness of observers suspecting the seemingly obvious - not that "they" or I (if I think that) was right in such a suspicion.

What if we are simply fulfilling a collective self-fulfilling prophecy expounded by C&F pundits? We think the flute market is weak (due to any number of unsubstantiated reasons), therefore it must be.

In any case, I'd love to see a bar chart.

Quite possibly, but I do not think my observations are unsubstantiated. I watch a lot of flutes on eBay, here on C&F and elsewhere and also hear about private sales and I am quite certain that many sales are being made at lower prices than would have been the case prior to the last 12 months. Of course one could find exceptions - bargains when prices generally were high, premium prices achieved against the grain currently..... I'm not an economist or mathematician and I'm not about to go through my records of R&R and RC&Co sales to make statistical analyses - I've better things to do. You'll just have to take my unscientific word for my impression of how things have run and are running.

Lots of could be's there.

Quite. Deliberately and correctly chosen conditional language.

Mid-size SUVs are up 50.7% from last year in the U.S. Go figure.

I'll take your word for it - and no, I don't want a citation of an academic source........

[m31]

You're saying it is and isn't correlative with macroeconomic trends.

No. You misinterpret. I meant I would not claim or intend to suggest that (I had the technical expertise to say that) flutes are a legitimate or meaningful macro-indicator. However, it doesn't seem unreasonable (as a layman) to suspect the generality of the wider situation is influential on the flute market - which is not the same thing as saying it is the cause.

Cause <> correlation.

[benhall.1]

I think the thing is that of course the state of the global economy must have an effect on wooden flute sales, just as it is having an effect on every other aspect of life, and will continue to do so for some time to come. However, you couldn't really measure those effects or extrapolate from any apparent trends in wooden flute sales in order to draw any conclusions as to the state of the global economy.

[jemtheflute]

Quite.

But then again, what's wrong with the world economy? I mean, Chelsea Tractor sales are strong in Rednecksville, so all's right really; who'd dream otherwise?

[Denny]

really?

Here the farmers are attempting to become tourist attractions to keep the land.

a lot of chain saws in the wood lots this summer, 'cause they can't afford any other heat.