when the fault "rumbled" a couple of years ago, there was damage in Maysville (and Cincinnati). When it went in 1813, it destroyed what was Louisville at the time.
I'm not sure of the tornado catagories for those that have hit in Kentucky - but personnally experienced a F5 in Cincinnati (that came from Kentucky cuz it had Ohio River mud in it, and deposited it in our house).
What Kentucky DOES have, and while it may not be a killer, it can take out electricity for weeks, is ice storms. There was a major ice storm in 1993 or 1994, in March, that did extensive damage in the Gorge area. There wasn't a single electric line left intact, and huge amounts of tree and roof damage.
That's part of the reason Kentucky schools start so early (mid-August) and get out so late (mid-June) to make up "snow" days. Unlike Ohio that builds 5 days into the schedule, all days have to be made up in Kentucky.
It's a cat 5 already
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ShadowBG625
- Posts: 467
- Joined: Tue Jul 19, 2005 6:52 am
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- Tell us something.: I've been a member of the forum for several years. Just poking my head to catch up on all the latest happenings, as well as checking out the FS/WTB page.
- Location: Florida
Sorry I haven't posted sooner guys. I've been out getting supplies. (including everything on Denny's list 
) Coming home on SR 50, there is one of those portable light-board thingys flashing the words "Starting 10-21-05 Expect Delays". Yeah, Wilma sure is a monster, but hopefully she'll die down if and when she makes Floridian landfall. And for those of you Floridians riding out the storm, just take a little word of advice my mother instilled into me growing up (being a religious family), "Greater he that is in me, than he that it is in the world." Stay safe guys. Board up, secure items in your yard, take care of animals. We just extended our porch, so we're moving the animals in there. It'll be interesting though, because my idiotic little dog loves to walk out into the rain. So, we shall see. And for those of you who are getting the he** out of dogde, well, beat the traffic, and bivouac in the back of C&F HQ!!!
) Coming home on SR 50, there is one of those portable light-board thingys flashing the words "Starting 10-21-05 Expect Delays". Yeah, Wilma sure is a monster, but hopefully she'll die down if and when she makes Floridian landfall. And for those of you Floridians riding out the storm, just take a little word of advice my mother instilled into me growing up (being a religious family), "Greater he that is in me, than he that it is in the world." Stay safe guys. Board up, secure items in your yard, take care of animals. We just extended our porch, so we're moving the animals in there. It'll be interesting though, because my idiotic little dog loves to walk out into the rain. So, we shall see. And for those of you who are getting the he** out of dogde, well, beat the traffic, and bivouac in the back of C&F HQ!!!-
Joseph E. Smith
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scottielvr
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- Location: NC mountains
All righty then! This guy is great. He indulges in both sarcasm and understatement. It's reassuring to know that they're being thrown for a loop at the NOAA...I'd find this perhaps more amusing if my parents' house weren't sitting right smack on the storm's current track (on the east coast). Well, at least they, and my brother's family (in west Broward) are all geared up with generators now (after stubbornly going without for decades). As a long-time former Floridian, I can't help following these things obsessively...I'm keeping my fingers crossed for you chiffsters there...(again).
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HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.
---------------------------------------------------------------
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS...WHICH HAD BEEN VERY GOOD
OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...HAS COMPLETELY COLLAPSED TODAY. THE
06Z RUNS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND NOGAPS MODELS ACCELERATED WILMA
RAPIDLY TOWARD NEW ENGLAND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A LARGE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THREE OF THESE
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF OF THIS SOLUTION...WITH THE GFDL SHOWING AN
EXTREME CHANGE...WITH ITS 5-DAY POSITION SHIFTING A MERE 1650 NMI
FROM ITS PREVIOUS POSITION IN MAINE TO THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA.
THERE IS ALMOST AS MUCH SPREAD IN THE 5-DAY POSITIONS OF THE 12Z
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS...WHICH RANGE FROM THE YUCATAN TO WELL EAST OF
THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WHAT THIS ILLUSTRATES IS THE EXTREME
SENSITIVITY OF WILMA'S FUTURE TRACK TO ITS INTERACTION WITH THE
GREAT LAKES LOW. OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...WILMA HAS BEEN
MOVING SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OR SOUTH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE...AND
THE LEFT-MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS ARE NOW SHOWING WILMA
DELAYING OR MISSING THE CONNECTION WITH THE LOW. I HAVE SLOWED THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST JUST A LITTLE BIT AT THIS TIME...BUT IF WILMA
CONTINUES TO MOVE MORE TO THE LEFT THAN EXPECTED...SUBSTANTIAL
CHANGES TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAY HAVE TO BE MADE DOWN THE LINE.
NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK...ESPECIALLY THE
TIMING...HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY.
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Cynth
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- Location: Iowa, USA
HURRICANE WILMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED OCT 19 2005
EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT WILMA HAD A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 892 MB INSIDE THE 4 N
MI WIDE EYE...ALONG WITH 700 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 140-150 KT.
SINCE THAT TIME...SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME
CLOUD-FILLED. ADDITIONALLY...A 00Z SSM/I OVERPASS SHOWS THAT THE
INNER EYEWALL HAS WEAKENED AS A 40 N MI WIDE OUTER EYEWALL BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED
TO 135 KT. THE NEXT AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE WILMA
AROUND 05Z-06Z.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY WOBBLY 300/7. IN THE SHORT TERM...A
LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF WILMA SHOULD STEER THE HURRICANE ON A
GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. AFTER
24-36 HR...THE RIDGE SHOULD WEAKEN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...FOLLOWED BY THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A POWERFUL DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U. S.. THE FIRST
SHORTWAVE SHOULD ALLOW WILMA TO TURN NORTHWARD...WHILE THE STRONGER
TROUGH SHOULD EVENTUALLY RECURVE THE STORM INTO THE WESTERLIES.
THE LATEST RUNS OF THE GFDL AND GFS HAVE RETURNED TO THEIR EARLIER
NO-STALL RECURVATURE SCENARIO...THUS INCREASING THE AGREEMENT
BETWEEN THE MODELS THROUGH 72-96 HR. HOWEVER...THE ENTIRE SUITE OF
GUIDANCE IS SLOWER FOR THE FIRST 96 HR THAN THE EARLIER RUNS. THE
NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE LEFT FOR THE FIRST 48
HR...THEN IS SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM 48-96 HR.
HOWEVER...EVEN THIS SLOWER FORECAST IS FASTER THAN THE GUIDANCE.
IT SHOULD ALSO BE NOTED THAT THE TRACK IS ALONG THE RIGHT SIDE OF
THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.
WILMA SHOULD UNDERGO AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE DURING THE NEXT
12-24 HR. THE FIRST 36 HR OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON
THE PREMISE THAT WILMA WILL RE-INTENSIFY WHEN THE CYCLE IS OVER.
THERE IS A CHANCE WILMA COULD WEAKEN MORE THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
BEFORE THE EYEWALL CYCLE ENDS. THE SHIPS MODEL IS FORECASTING A
SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR ONCE WILMA REACHES THE THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THAT COMBINED WITH COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL WEAKENING. THAT BEING SAID...WILMA IS STILL
EXPECTED TO REACH FLORIDA AS A MAJOR HURRICANE. AFTER PASSAGE OVER
FLORIDA...WILMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE TO SHEAR AND EVEN
COOLER WATER. THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES THAT COULD MAKE LARGE
DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY OF WILMA. THE FIRST IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF LANDFALL OVER YUCATAN OR THE INTERACTION WITH THE
PENINSULA IN THE FORECAST CLOSE APPROACH. A LANDFALL WOULD RESULT
IN A WEAKER STORM...WHILE INTERACTION COULD WEAKEN THE SYSTEM MORE
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. THE SECOND IS POSSIBLE EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION AND PHASING WITH THE DEEP TROUGH AFTER 96 HR. SHOULD
THIS HAPPEN...WILMA COULD BECOME A POWERFUL STORM EITHER OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC OR THE NORTHEASTERN U. S..
FORECASTER BEVEN
Diligentia maximum etiam mediocris ingeni subsidium. ~ Diligence is a very great help even to a mediocre intelligence.----Seneca
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Joseph E. Smith
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Thank you! I was wondering if anyone had noticed at all! LOL! Well, aside from Cynth. From comments some have made, I gather they have not read or enjoyed Lamby's adventures.missy wrote:hey Lamby - I just wanted to tell you I've been appreciating your avatars lately - they are all funny and cute!!!
We're very worried about her this morning. No one has heard from her since the other evening, when she was trapped at the International House of Pancakes in Topeka. It's been a stressful time for all of us. We hope they can get to her in time and that the trauma hasn't caused her irreparable harm.
Cotelette d'Agneau
