Outsource This!

[Darwin]

On the other hand, that's sure not the end of the world for the US--our fundamentals (fertile soil that's conveniently located, loads of fresh water, easily navigable rivers, rain at the right times, abundant resources of all sorts, educated--OK, this is all relative--population, thousands of miles of ocean separating us from many of the world's problems, relatively young population compared to other developed countries) are so good that we can survive. ... We've been blessed in so many ways that we can probably muddle through almost anything.

But who's going to work in the lettuce field a few blocks from my home when we can't get cheap Mexican labor? That's a field where a good education would only contribute to discontent. Our noble leaders seem to recognize this. Isn't there a move afoot to bring back some kind of Bracero program? http://www.workingforchange.com/article ... emID=16267

Anyhow, those thousands of miles of oceans don't isolate us from the world economy. One question is whether the whole world will end up with a standard of living more like our current one, or whether the world-wide standard of living (including our own) will average out halfway between ours and that of, say, Rwanda.

I've been officially out of work (as a programmer) for 20 months. I'm still in pretty good shape, but since my former employer went bankrupt last summer, most of my co-workers have failed to find permanent jobs--and it's not really feasible for most of them to move to India or the Ukraine. They tend to be younger than me, and most have several kids below the age of 15. (Why is it so hard to get married people to practice abstinence?) I suspect that some of them are on the verge of not muddling through at all.

[elendil]

What's interesting is, you won't see any CEOs jobs bleeding overseas! The least productive people are rapidly becoming the only Americans with any job security at all.

I hate the managers, too, even in my safe bureaucratic job, but if it were all that easy then all those productive but unemployed software engineers would get together, form their own companies, be productive and share profits and live happily ever after. The fact is, the trend has long been underway for software to be largely commoditized, just like has happened with most hardware. Just track the prices on computers over the years, and compare what you're getting. You just know without looking further that profit margins probably aren't what they used to be. Even MS will find this out eventually.

I've tried to tell this to other parents who think that their kids, who are majoring in computer science, are entering a field in which they'll enjoy great job security. People are finally catching on in the business world that computing is a tool, not an end in itself. Just as budgets were cut by replacing workers with machines, the same thing will happen with IT budgets. I read an article recently that said managers were increasingly questioning why every major corporation was supposed to run an IT department that virtually made the corporation, in effect, an IT enterprise as well as a business. IT departments are unquestionably the area that businesses will be looking to make their cuts.

Darwin, I contend that our fundamentals will never allow us to fall as low as you suggest, although it's conceivable that there could be some adjustments.

As for all those people with "several kids below the age of 15," statistics suggest that there are relatively few of them in this country. Moreover, call me a sceptic, but I doubt most of those people you refer to were attempting periodic abstinence or natural Family Planning--sadly. My wife and I were trained as instructors (and practioners) in the sympto-thermal method of Natural Family Planning. It's not like anyone's suggesting a life of abstinence--a perfectly normal married life is quite compatible with a naturally planned family. It does require communication and cooperation on the part of the husband as well as the wife, which is often the biggest obstacle. Our four children would suggest that we're as normal as the next couple.

[elendil]

Here's a link to what's intended to be a slightly amusing article on outsourcing by one of my favorite geek writers:

http://www.pbs.org/cringely/pulpit/pulpit20040226.html

Hey Darwin, I thought from your screenname and avatar that you were into evolution and all (in which case you might want to check out the letters to the editor in today's WSJ), but then I had a flash: Darwin, Mac Programmer, aaahhh! I think I get it. Did you work on Darwin? Just asking.